Transformation of Regional Policy Instruments in the South Caucasus after the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War

Abstract

The article aims to clarify the substance, logic, and main trajectories of transformation of regional policy instruments in the South Caucasus after the 2020 Second Karabakh War, tracing developments over 2020–2025 with particular attention to the qualitative shifts that emerged after 2023. The 2020 war is treated as a pivotal historical and political watershed that altered the balance of power, accelerated the institutionalization of the post-war order, and sharpened competition among the parties and involved stakeholders over negotiation frameworks, security regimes, and the rules governing communications and transit within the broader Black Sea–Caucasus nexus. The methodological framework combines problem-chronological and comparative-historical approaches, analysis of official documents and public positions, and a structural-functional analysis of regional policy instruments. To ensure reproducibility of results, the instruments are grouped into five interrelated clusters: negotiating-diplomatic (formats, tracks, mediation), security (presence, missions, monitoring, guarantees), institutional-legal (governance decisions and control regimes), economic-transit (communications, infrastructure, corridor projects), and communicative (legitimation frameworks and strategic communications as enabling support for the instruments).

The study shows that in 2020–2022 the prevailing logic was that of initial post-war institutionalization: diplomatic arrangements were reinforced by security/control regimes and transit-communication levers, yet these mechanisms were not self-sufficient and remained contingent on legitimacy and resource backing. It is demonstrated that after 2023 a transition occurred to a “second phase” of post-war transformation, characterized by a more polycentric negotiation environment, the strengthening of institutional-legal and monitoring mechanisms, and the situational combination of instruments across competing settlement tracks.

It is concluded that the post-war evolution of regional policy following the Second Karabakh War is marked by a shift from a relatively orderly “post-war framework” to a competitive environment of parallel tracks, where effectiveness is determined by the ability of involved participants to integrate diplomatic, security, institutional-legal, and economic-transit mechanisms into coherent packages and to secure their legitimation.

The practical relevance of the findings lies in their applicability to assessing the limits of hybrid influence, the resilience of security and energy-transit configurations, and the role of strategic communications in post-conflict environments, including in relation to challenges facing Ukraine.