The Attitude of the Modern Political Elite to the Denuclearization Process of the Late Twentieth Century

Abstract

The article analyzes the process of nuclear disarmament of Ukraine in the vision of the modern Ukrainian political elite in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war. The key arguments used by the Ukrainian establishment to justify the abandonment of the nuclear arsenal (economic, geopolitical and security aspects) are considered. It is shown that the main motives of the political elite were to integrate into the international community and receive security guarantees from the leading countries of the world, in particular the United States of America. It is noted that international pressure and Ukraine’s obligations under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons significantly influenced the decision to disarm. It is stated that the Ukrainian political elite perceived the Budapest Memorandum as a reliable mechanism for ensuring territorial integrity and sovereignty before the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian war. The author characterizes the evolution of the political elite’s views on defense capabilities after the loss of nuclear status, which led to a reorientation towards Euro-Atlantic integration. It is noted that the Russian aggression of 2014 actualized among the political elite of Ukraine the debate on the need to strengthen national defense capabilities. It is noted that a significant part of Ukrainian politicians believed that Ukraine’s strategic reorientation to cooperation with NATO and the development of its own military capabilities should be the only real mechanism for protecting national interests. It is stated that after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine (2022), the Ukrainian political elite has revived discussions on the prospects for restoring the nuclear arsenal as a mechanism for deterring the enemy and ensuring the national security of our country. It is noted that such opinions did not receive positive feedback in society, which led to the reorientation of the political elite to the idea of guaranteeing the inviolability of borders by developing mechanisms to strengthen international responsibility for violations of security guarantees, strengthening defense capabilities, modernizing the Armed Forces and expanding international cooperation.