Maritime evacuation of forces as a multiphase operational cycle: a theoretical and historical perspective

Abstract

The experience of repelling the Russian Federation’s armed aggression against Ukraine demonstrates the necessity of redefining maritime evacuation as a complex process of joint (interagency, coalition) interaction conducted under intensive enemy influence. Despite the extensive historical record of maritime evacuations of forces throughout the 20th and early 21st centuries, military-historical research predominantly treats these as isolated episodes. The lack of a generalized invariant functional structure necessitates a scientific systematization of approaches to planning such maritime operations.

Purpose. The article aims to provide a military-historical substantiation for interpreting the maritime evacuation of forces as a multiphase operational cycle and to develop a generalized theoretical model that reflects its structural invariants, critical points, and patterns of vulnerability to the enemy's counter-evacuation influence.

Methods. The methodological framework of the study is based on historical-comparative and retrospective operational analysis of maritime evacuations of forces during the 20th and early 21st centuries. The application of a systems approach and structural-functional analysis enabled the synthesis of a holistic model of evacuation as a multiphase process with defined causal relationships.

Results. The study provides a military-historical analysis of the maritime evacuation of forces as a complex operational process and substantiates its interpretation as an invariant cycle with a stable functional architecture, regardless of scale, theater of operations, or level of technological development. The invariant functional phases of the evacuation cycle and their structural interdependence have been identified. The study outlines critical points that determine the operational resilience of the process and formalizes the concept of the "point of no return" as a critical threshold for the transition from a controlled process to irreversible disorganization. Patterns of vulnerability for each phase of the evacuation cycle to the enemy’s counter-evacuation influence across land, sea, air, and information domains have been identified. It is proved that evacuation effectiveness depends on the balance between the immediate operational result and the strategic effect of preserving the combat capability of the forces.

Conclusions. The theoretical value of the study lies in the systematization of fragmented historical experience within a unified operational cycle model. The practical significance consists in the potential application of this model by military command and control bodies for risk assessment, identification of critical operational phases, and the development of algorithms to counter the enemy's counter-evacuation measures.